Isolation - does it work?
Another week of isolation for millions of people around the world has passed. It depresses me that it seems that in defense and combat against this invisible invader, isolation is the only weapon we have.
I ask myself, however, whether this weapon works. Isolating as many people as possible limits the spread of the disease. That's obvious. The more we limit our contacts, the fewer the number of coronavirus infections. However, I'm interested in something else - whether isolation is able to defeat the virus, that is, make it disappear. The answer to this question is also obvious. Chinese-style isolation kills the virus. Because if you close every factory and shop, and lock people in their homes and weld their exit doors shut, then every virus is inevitably doomed to death in a finite and short time, sometimes taking its carrier with it. In short, Chinese isolation is one hundred percent effective in fighting the virus.
And what about our Polish, or perhaps European, or perhaps better said, civilized form of isolation? Is it effective in fighting the virus? The answer is also obvious. It is not. Our civilized method of isolation is absolutely effective in limiting the rate of spread of the epidemic, but it is not effective in fighting it at all, that is, it does not eliminate the virus. Just look at the statistics of illnesses and deaths in individual "civilized countries" in connection with the date of implementation of isolation. In Poland, we have been isolated for three weeks, and at the same time the infection curves are not falling - on the contrary, they are rising. If isolation eliminated the virus - these curves would have to fall. Yes, if it were not for isolation, the number of infections and deaths would be higher - I do not question that. I believe that our Polish method of isolation limits the spread of the virus, but it does not eliminate it in any way.
Why is this happening? The reasons are simple. The main reason is that a large part of our country functions normally. Mostly, factories, workplaces, industry, construction are operating, because only a small part of them can afford remote work. A large part of services is also operating - for example, banks, car repair shops, insurance companies, shops, etc. Although in all these places there are various restrictions that make it difficult for the virus to expand, let's not kid ourselves - the virus still has a lot of opportunities to spread there.
The second reason is the very nature of man – not only a Pole, but also a European or an American. As Stefan Kisielewski once said – the worst thing is not that we are in a deep shit, the worst thing is that we are settling into it. People get used to a new, difficult reality very quickly and find their own methods of dealing with it. Subsequent bans cause temporary discipline, but after a few days they are bypassed by people. Yes, most people comply with the restrictions, but as the Italian economist and sociologist Marquis Vilfredo Pareto used to say – twenty percent of the actions give eighty percent of the results.
So am I advocating even greater isolation? Absolutely not. Quite the opposite. I believe that the civilized method of isolation will not defeat the virus, and further restrictions make no sense. Not only will we not defeat the virus with this weapon, but as a side effect - we will lead to a disaster, first economic, and then social - caused by the lack of livelihoods for many people. The governments of countries seriously attacked by the coronavirus are naively waiting for the restrictions and isolations they have introduced to kill the virus. Well, I want to report that they will not. They will limit the force with which this virus spreads, and they will kill the economy, and consequently people. It is a bit like treating yourself with a medicine that reduces cough and runny nose, but does not eliminate it, but as a side effect kills the patient. It makes some sense, because after all, the patient dies with a smaller cough.
In my opinion, the only approach for humanity is to immediately abandon "civilized" isolation methods and replace them with the Chinese model of isolation, but only for people who are seriously at risk of coronavirus, i.e. the elderly and sick.
I am not sure whether this changed approach will kill the virus. I do know that it will save the economy. And with the coronavirus, maybe the world should simply learn to live with it.
