Consent builds
The elections are still a long way off, and although the populists who have been governing us for over six years, disguised as the righteous and just, have reduced most of the state institutions to ashes and instilled hatred, fear and xenophobia in Poles, forbidding respect and trust, there is no indication that they will lose these next elections.
Because who would they lose to?
The Civic Platform, or Civic Coalition, which after eight years of rule lost power in 2015 due to unbearable arrogance and pride, has still failed to draw any conclusions from this defeat.
The Platform is trying ineptly to give the impression that it is the only party that can be entrusted with governing and that it deserves it like soup to a dog. Moreover, the only thing it has to offer Poles is a story about how bad PiS is. That it is bad is seen by everyone who wants to see it and is not seen by anyone who does not want to or cannot see it, but if the party only includes one point in its program "PiS is bad and must be removed from power", then I am not surprised that such a party will be doomed to an outflow of supporters.
In addition, the Platform does not seem to understand that half the work in any party is done by the leader. After the departure of the unrivaled Tusk, each subsequent chairman is another nail in the coffin: starting from the clumsy Kopacz, through the uncouth Schetyna, to the loudmouthed, seemingly overly smart and unlikable Budka, about whom the last thing that can be said is that he is a leader.
The most sensible move for the Platform would be to choose Trzaskowski, who of all this mutual admiration society would have the best chance of winning the sympathy of Poles. The Platform should make him the leader immediately after losing the presidential election, although I am not sure if there is anything that can save the Platform from disappearing from Polish politics. In my opinion, they will receive little more than ten percent of the votes in the next elections and this will be their last term in the Polish Sejm.
Trzaskowski himself is my great disappointment. I had hoped that after the presidential elections, which he lost by a hair, he would show that he is a heavyweight and change our sad politics by separating from the Platform and building his own political power. In the meantime, he has focused on building some clumsy political movement cooperating with the Platform, which will always be a ball and chain for this movement, preventing it from moving beyond the stage of slogans and promises. Trzaskowski, instead of building a political movement under the auspices of the Platform, should rather take care of Warsaw's affairs.
Hołownia has grown into the second political force after PiS and I have the impression that it will remain that way until the elections. His growing support is not primarily due to the fact that Poles like him more and more, but rather to the fact that Poles like Platform less and less, and it is precisely those disgusted with Platform who seem to be the main support base for his support.
Of all the party leaders on the Polish stage, Hołownia has the most charisma. He speaks quite wisely. He gives the impression of someone who knows what to do after coming to power. His critics, which I do not share, often point out that he is a militant Catholic who will only show what he really thinks after coming to power. I have a different problem with Hołownia. Every party, apart from the leader, needs wise people who will be able to bear the burden of power. There are no such people in Hołownia's party. One gets the impression that Hołownia's party consists of Hołownia and a growing number of grey members of this party.
PSL has the best behind them. It is almost certain that they will achieve a result close to the electoral threshold in the next elections – perhaps two percent above, or two percent below. They allowed PiS to pluck out the entire rural electorate, unsuccessfully convincing that they are more pious, more conservative and better at understanding rural issues than PiS. The only bright spot in this party is their leader, but he alone will not be able to stop the process of this party fading into oblivion.
The Left, or the coalition of embarrassment, with three, God-forgive-me tenors: Biedroń, who gives the impression that he just turned seven, Zandberg, whose concern for the issues of working people somehow does not seem genuine, and Czarzasty, who, regardless of what he says, will always bring to mind where the Polish Left comes from, will never break the glass ceiling of twelve, thirteen percent support, even though there are many more people with leftist views in Poland than their support.
The opposition in Poland is simply weak and in the next elections we will once again have to vote choosing the least evil, instead of indicating the greatest good.
But that's not what saddens me the most.
PiS will finish this term and win the next elections, although it will no longer be able to govern alone or create a coalition that would have a majority. PiS will win, which means it will achieve the best result of all parties, but it will have to give power to a coalition of three parties: Hołownia, Platforma and Lewica with Prime Minister Hołownia, because his party will achieve the highest result. And although it will be good for Poland, because removing PiS from power, it will always be good for Poland, regardless of who takes power.
The problem is that these three parties will not be able to come to an agreement with each other, and at the same time they will have to stay in this arrangement, because the alternative to it will be another election, which would bring nothing good. After PiS, we will not have a time of a quick return to normality, but rather of fighting cats, tug-of-war and drifting.
This lack of agreement, the inability to cooperate, the reluctance to talk on the opposition side is clearly visible today. By adopting the National Reconstruction Plan, the opposition could have easily forced PiS to adopt the KPO on its own terms, if only it had spoken with one voice. However, this requires good cooperation. And usually, when it comes to cooperation between partners of different strengths, the ball lies primarily in the court of the strongest - in this case, the Civic Platform. I think that this lack of cooperation on the opposition side is mainly their merit. It is sad.
